Pakistan’s wheat crisis is yet to be resolved, with the government doing less than it needs to.Agriculture makes up nearly 23 percent of the GDP of Pakistan, and wheat makes up 2 percent of the whole. More than 60 percent of the country’s population is still based in rural areas and is heavily dependent on agriculture. The current crisis is not just a stumbling block for the farmers but for those 60 percent as well. The root of the crisis stems from the floods of 2022, which resulted in a massive downfall of wheat production from 30 million tons to 26.8 million tons in Pakistan. This led to an increase in demand for gunny bags. To curb the demand, the caretaker government allowed the private sector to import substantial-quality wheat despite having millions of tons of carryover stock.
The Pakistani government purchases wheat directly from the farmers at a Minimum Support Price (MSP). This stock acts as a stabilizer and is released amidst shortages to the floor mills and consumers. But this year, things didn’t go as usual. During April–March 2024, just a month before the harvest season, Pakistan imported 3.5 million tons of wheat. This was when the farmers expected a bumper crop due to favorable weather conditions and were predicting a higher profit. The wheat production in Pakistan during 2023–24 stood at 31.4 million tons, as compared to 28.2 million tons last year.
On top of that, the government refused to buy wheat from the farmers, saying it had carryover stock. This surplus stock led to a huge fall in wheat prices, with farmers forced to sell the grain at lower prices of 2900/40 kg compared to the MSP of 3900/40 kg. Farmers say that they were not informed beforehand of the government’s plan to not procure wheat this year. Punjab Chief Minister, Maryam Nawaz, said that by doing so, the government has prevented massive corruption that is reported in wheat procurement every year. Consequently, widespread farmer protests erupted across Pakistan.
At first, the government outright refused to acknowledge the existence of any such crisis. But just like every other scandal to exist in this country, this too reached the blame game level among the ruling elites. The current Punjab government and the main opposition party, PTI, both put the responsibility for the disaster on the former caretaker government. However, Premier Shahbaz Shareef formed a committee and announced an investigation into the scandal. Although the probe was meant to answer why the caretaker government allowed the import of wheat despite having carryover stock and when the farmers were expecting a bumper crop this year, it only focused on investigating imports during March.
The former caretaker prime minister, Anwar ul Haq Kakar, defended his decision to import, saying, “It was for the benefit of the consumers.” He also denied the allegations of corruption out and out. As if the whole fiasco wasn’t enough, the government announced that it would designate the flour mills as withholding agents for tax collection. As a result, the floor mills went on a nationwide strike on Thursday, July 11, 2024. The All Pakistan Flour Mills Association warned the government of an increase in flour prices if the taxation decision wasn’t taken back.
Shahbaz Sharif issued directives on Friday to include representatives of the Land Information and Management System and the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) on the wheat board. “Farmer representatives should be included on the wheat board,” he said. He has also urged the experts and relevant institutions, along with the governments of Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu, and Kashmir, to devise an alternative policy for the procurement of wheat that would be helpful in reducing corruption and enhancing wheat production.
While these steps might be fruitful to some extent, the damage done cannot be compensated. The government now needs to take the matter seriously, it needs to become an ally of the vulnerable farmers. Because the only party that seems to be suffering from all the mess created is the farmer. The carryover stock and the delay in procurement have already caused a loss of millions, and no further time is left to be wasted.
This is a multipronged issue, and before more parties become prey to the disaster, instead of the usual blame game, the authorities need to probe into the matter and resolve the corrupt procurement system. The government’s direct intervention in the wheat market should be limited and should only use the carryover stock to stabilize the market instead of setting a minimum purchase price. Moreover, a sustainable wheat support price policy should be introduced to provide sustenance to farmers. The existing incompetent policies are only creating more problems with time.
The Author, Mehreen Khan is a social sciences researcher, human rights advocate, and climate activist.
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