Middle East Destruction; Self defence or a Long-Term Plan in Action?

Written by Anna Zafar

The Middle East today stands as the most volatile region on earth, with conflicts erupting on various fronts and tensions spreading swiftly across the whole region. Some of these tensions manifested as civil wars, political uprisings and others are characterized by foreign intervention. The tensions reached another turning point on October 7th, 2023, when a Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked on Southern Israel. This attack was followed by full scale Israelian invasion on the Gaza strip. Israel justified its attack as a right to self defence under article 51 of the United Nations charter. However, as the invasion persisted, increase in civilian death toll and the conflict spillover in Lebanon raised an important question, i.e., whether these actions were merely defensive or do they reflect a more sinister design embedded in the long-lost strategies. One of such long-buried strategies is the Oded Yinon plan, a blueprint for the creation of greater Israel through regional fragmentation. Similar to the Oded Yinon plan, the US foreign policy projection also works on similar designs. Thus, this op-ed seeks to explore the Oded Yinon plan and the US foreign policy convergence that have contributed to the destruction of the Middle East in a series of events that were meticulously crafted decades ago. The Oded Yinon Plan, named after its author Oded Yinon, an Israeli journalist and former advisor to Ariel Sharon, the 11th Prime Minister of Israel, was introduced in 1982. It appeared in an article titled “A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties” published in the Hebrew journal Kivunim. The plan outlined a strategy for Israel to secure dominance in the Middle East by exploiting the internal divisions of its neighboring countries. Proposed in the context of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the rising Palestinian resistance, Yinon emphasized that Israel’s security depended on a ‘divide and rule’ approach. He described the Arab Muslim world as inherently ‘self-destructive,’ blaming flawed borders drawn by European imperialist powers in the 1940s. According to him, the Arab world was divided into 19 states, each composed of hostile ethnic and sectarian groups. He also highlighted sectarian tensions within the Arab world, non-Arab Iran, and the Bedouin Maghreb. Yinon envisioned a fractured Middle East, where mini states would be pitted against one another, rendering Muslim unity against Israel impossible. His plan advised Israel to weaken and fragment the region along ethnic and sectarian lines to achieve its vision of a ‘Greater Israel.The strategic ambitions highlighted in the Oded Yinon plan align closely with the projection of US foreign policy in the Middle East. The US has pursued a policy of foreign intervention and regime change over the years. The US decision to go to war with Iraq in 2003 reflects its resonance with the Oded Yinon plan. This decision was based on weak intelligence about the presence of weapons of mass destruction. Despite knowing that the intelligence is not credible, the Bush administration decided to wage war anyways. The aftermath of this was infliction of heavy human losses in Iraq, complete breakdown of social and political machinery, resulting in much of Iraqi territory getting under the control of extremist groups such as the ISIS. Likewise, the US also intervened in Syria to overthrow the Assad regime and in doing so, provoked Russia to enter the Middle Eastern battle theatre. The attack on Yemen and foreign intervention in Libya are also instances where the US has aided in fragmentation of the Arab states and simultaneously the strengthening of Israel. Further evidence of this is found in the statement of former NATO commander, General Wesley Clark who recalls his conversation with a pentagon General. Clark reveals the intentions of USA to overthrow governments of 7 countries including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran. The current chaos in the Middle East started after the Arab spring, a series of anti-government revolts across Arab and Maghrib countries. The revolts started from Tunisia in 2011 and quickly spread across other countries such as Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arab and Sudan. Many of these revolts resulted in regime changes such as that of Hosni Mubarik in Egypt whose reign ended after 30 years. However, the US capitalized on these very revolts and started foreign intervention in many of the countries including Yemen, Libya and Syria which left much of the Middle East and North Africa in shambles. The situation took a turning point in October 2023 when Hamas attacked on Israel giving it a reason to attack on Gaza in the name of self defence. However, what followed was a devastating military campaign where hospitals and schools were bombed, and the civilians were butchered in a gruesome manner. The conflict persists to this day with Israel continuing to bomb Gaza heavily. During this time, the US has continued to provide material and moral support to Israel. USA has spent more than $17.9 billion in military aid to Israel and a total of $22.7 billion in operations in the Middle East. In addition to this, The US has also blocked many resolutions against Israel in the UNSC. This clearly displays the US’ interest in making of a greater Israel.The spillover of Israel-Hamas conflict is of a great significance. Just after the Israeli invasion of Gaza began, the Houthis of Yemen started targeting ships in Bab-ul-Mandab, an important sea lane of communication, in support of Gaza which affected global trade routes. In response to this, the US launched operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red sea. Later in February 2024, UK and USA launched airstrikes in Yemen to target Houthis. Moreover, the conflict also spread swiftly to Lebanon with Israel attacking Southern Lebanon in a bid to target Iran backed Hezbollah. The attacks have increased this year with Israel bombing the whole country. Iran is also involved directly in the war. On October 1st, 2024, Iran launched massive missile attack on Israel which further exacerbated the situation. In conclusion, the current situation in the Middle East reflects a culmination of long-standing geopolitical strategies and foreign interventions. The Oded Yinon plan and the parallel policies of the United States have contributed to fragmentation and instability across the region, leaving nations divided and in conflict. The aftermath of the Arab Spring, the wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and the continued support for Israel showcase the complex interplay between regional ambitions and global power interests. Recent escalations, including the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict, Lebanon invasion and Yemen attacks, emphasize the volatility of the region. These events demonstrate how regional fragmentation and external interference have perpetuated cycles of violence, making Arab Muslim unity a forgotten dream in the wake of the creation of Greater Israeli state.