Analyzing the Impacts of Water Crisis as an Environmental Challenge to the Ongoing Syrian War

Written by Muhammad Maroof hassan

The Syrian conflict which was initiated due to Mouawiya Syasneh, A young schoolboy’s Anti-Assad Graffiti turned into a large-scale complex Civil war with many local and international actors and violent groups being involved. The Syrian civil war, considered to be the deadliest conflict of the Arab Spring, was a result of immense economic and social disparities, unemployment, Political Subjugation, and long-standing grievances against the authoritarian Assad regime. But one major reason that combined with other intervening factors caused this conflict was mass rural-urban migration due to climate change-induced drought and severe weather patterns. Now, over a decade has passed and the Water crisis due to climate change, Political mismanagement, and infrastructure damage have become a key factor in fueling ongoing conflict and a potential threat for major escalation.

The effects of Climate change-driven water crisis are getting worse with time. The abrupt weather patterns, increased evaporation due to rising temperatures, and reduced rainfall have caused the worst drought Syria has ever experienced in the last 70 years. This drought has left people deprived of access to fresh water for drinking and agriculture and a loss of 2.2 billion cubic meters in natural water reservoirs.UN has predicted droughts to be more severe and long-lasting in the region and Syria being the most drought-prone is at risk. This water crisis has posed a challenge for millions of people across Syria to access fresh drinkable water. People living in Syrian government-controlled regions are facing an issue of adequate pipelines and relying on alternate poor water sources like trucked water. It is estimated that around 7 million people have access to their primary water source only 7 days per month which shows the intensity of this water crisis linked with a broader humanitarian crisis.

Tigris-Euphrates basin Serves as the main water source for the Syrian population in the North and Eastern regions where 80% live with a high water stress. Turkey Supplies around 98% of water to Euphrates and 50% to Tigris However, due to the adverse effects of Climate change Water supply to these rivers has reduced drastically, and most affected river is Euphrates which is major water supplier for agriculture and source of 70% hydroelectric power for Syria. But the Euphrates is running at an all-time low rate and receiving only 200 cubic meters per second of water which leads to the worst drought since 1953. This low water rate has not only affected availability of water for drinking and agriculture but has caused an even greater energy crisis as 3 dams located on the Euphrates are barely working and the population in the Northeastern region is getting only 2 hours of electricity per day.

But it’s not the end; there’s an even greater crisis awaiting conflict-ridden Syria: The food crisis exacerbated by the ongoing water crisis. Due to the Shortage of water supply to Euphrates, 80% of farmers have lost their crops in Hasakeh province which serves as bread basket for syria. Syrian agriculture which heavily relies on water from rivers is getting affected by droughts, crop failure, and reduced livestock production. Climate change will greatly affect food and water security in the region.

But it’s not just the climate, a lot is going on that’s adding to Suffering of people in Syria. Another major problem is the weaponizing of water infrastructure by ISIS and Hydro-politics by Turkey. ISIS is using these water resources as tools for weakening the resistance, building political pressure and source of capital. Turkey is strategically siphoning water from Euphrates via its upstream dams which has brought water supply to 40%(200 cubic meters per second) , less than half of what was agreed in the agreement(500 cubic meters per second) between Syria and Turkey. Turkey claims this climate effect but what Kurds think on the Northern border is that it is intentionally being done by Turkey as a revenge tactic with the Euphrates River becoming a political border between warring parties, and water scarcity being a key security issue.

So, the water crisis in Syria isn’t just an environmental issue or an agenda of Climate change, It has produced a greater humanitarian crisis where food crisis and energy crisis are part of this broader crisis. The earthquake of 2023 in Syria further intensified the situation and caused more damage to hydro-infrastructure that was already poor and barely working. This calamity has left half of the Syrian population suffering from food insecurity. It is clear now that if this situation isn’t dealt with proper policy making and efficient management, it can certainly escalate the situation and can cause more violent conflicts in the region.

The Arab community is welcoming Assad and this provides a glimmer of hope for Syria, particularly the severe water crisis that threatens the stability of the region. The only way to mitigate this crisis is to secure funds and investment from Arab partners and Stakeholders. Rebuilding critical Hydro-infrastructure, that was damaged due to years of war and the 2023 earthquake, is vital to curtail the effects of this water crisis. It is also crucial to engage in talks with Turkey regarding the shortage of water supply in Euphrates as this can and surely will become, if not dealt diplomatically, a point of contention between Syria and Turkey and can cause another conflict threatening Syria’s survival. While Syria cannot reverse the devastating impacts of climate change, strategic cooperation and long-term planning can mitigate the human-induced factors that have exacerbated the crisis. The future of millions of Syrians depends on decisive action today, for without it, water scarcity could trigger yet another chapter of violence and instability.