In the formulation and implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan, President Asif Ali Zardari has played a significant role. Either it was the nightmare in 2008 to think about geopolitical connectivity via development or new pragmatic hypotheses to reshape the current geopolitical and economic trends via connectivity. Asif Ali Zardari, who is forging the third way of governance in Pakistan, is inheriting the socialistic posture from his party. From 2008 to 2013, he visited China nine times to assure the Chinese government about the geopolitical significance of Pakistan and create an environment of trust between the two countries in the discourse of investment and business startups in Pakistan. That is the reason the Chinese government finds it more convenient with Zardari and labelled him the founder and pioneer of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has faced significant pushback during the last few years, particularly during the government of Imran Khan. This project is encountering significant challenges such as terrorist attacks, local people insurgencies, inadequate and inconsistent government political and economic policies, and international pressure from Western governments and institutions. Terrorism and suicide bombing attacks on the Chinese workers and CPEC installations have occurred since 2018. These attacks have become the hot topic of everyday discussion at all international and national forums. There have been 14 terrorist attacks targeting Chinese personnel in Pakistan, resulting in the death of 20 Chinese citizens and casualties of 25 people from 2021 to December 2024. The primary outfit behind these attacks was the Baloch Liberation Army, an insurgent group claiming to protect Balochistan from the Pakistan government and other foreign brands.
Amid these insecurities and challenges, CPEC has entered a new phase of development and innovation. CPEC phase 2.0 features two segments that reflect the national interests of China and Pakistan. First, the segment includes the multinational dimensional framework, such as the CPEC-5Cs: Growth Corridor, Livelihood-Enhancing Corridor, Innovation Corridor, Green Corridor, and Opening-Up/Regional Connectivity Corridor, which aims to connect other regions to the CPEC, particularly Central Asia. The second segment focuses on Pakistan’s 5Es framework of Economy (2025-2029): Employment, Exports, Environment, Energy, and Equity to foster the culture of sustainable development in Pakistan and offer incentives to the local people of Pakistan.
Both Ahsan Iqbal, Minister of Planning and Development, and President Asif Ali Zardari aim to rebuild mutual trust through their visits, which they have scheduled for 18 December 2024 and from 4 to 8 February 2025, respectively. They seek to reassure the security guarantee of Chinese personnel, ensure investment security, affirm Pakistan’s consistency on the CPEC projects, and enhance the national capacity to connect with other regional players via China’s global connectivity projects. These visits not only overcome the issues that emanated during phase 1, such as security threats and project impediments, but also strengthen the diplomatic alignments in the emerging geopolitical rivals, such as Indo-US ties. The official visit of President Asif Ali Zardari has more significance because it includes a more vibrant delegation comprising Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, Senator Saleem Mandviwala, and Dr Asim Hussain.
According to a senior journalist, Salim Bukhari, this delegation not only assures the internal security guarantee to the Chinese but also highlights the strategic shift towards China during the Trump presidency. Besides, this delegation has negated any sort of joint establishment of a security force to protect the Chinese citizens; instead, China will assist in acquiring advanced technology to expand the scale of operations against the terrorist groups. Pakistan and China agreed to conduct joint exercises on counterterrorism, misinformation, and disinformation propaganda reinforced by India on CPEC credibility and transparency. Thus, both agreed to continue the Warrior exercise series to enhance proficiency in counterterrorism strategies and tactics. Pakistan has convinced the Xi Jinping administration to acknowledge the sacrifice of Pakistani soldiers in the war on terror. Both countries acknowledged each other’s efforts and agreed to expand the horizons of counter-terrorism exercises to other regional players to combat the growing threats of terrorism, separatism, and extremism, aiming to achieve regional stability and peace.
This visit solidified the strategic partnership between the two countries despite several concerns about security and projects. China regarded this visit as an instrumental step to strengthen the strategic ties and operationalize the CPEC mega projects, such as Gwadar International Airport. China has responded positively to Pakistan’s $3.4 billion loan request to ensure the financial stability of Pakistan. But, Pakistan sees this visit as a crucial geopolitical success to reaffirm its strategic and all-weather good friendship ties with the People’s Republic of China. The visit has been successful in signing numerous agreements between the two countries, such as the gasification of Thar coal, climate-resilient agriculture and fertilizer synergy, EV taxi in the Sindh region, and a medical city in Dhabeji. These projects are aimed at providing special facilities to local communities and people in the region.
The paradox of (in)security
The geostrategic location of Baluchistan and the rise of insurgent groups present multidimensional threats to the state as well as the local people. The militarization and lack of transparency surrounding the CPEC fuel mistrust and resistance against this project. For instance, despite continuous state-centric security measures and counter-terrorism efforts, the insurgent group carried out a total of 15 attacks from 1 February 2025 to 16 February 2025 on different construction projects of CPEC and Pakistan army check-posts. The Baluchistan Liberation Front carried out eight attacks, the Baluchistan Liberation Army five, and the Baluchistan Republican Guards two, which reflects the vulnerabilities of the CPEC projects and personnel working in the region. This spiral ladder of insecurities leads to a security dilemma within a state encompassing economic insecurities, social insecurities, political insecurities, and ethnic under-representation.
A short survey from the local residents of Baluchistan was conducted to analyze the prospect of the CPEC phase 2 amid growing extremist attacks and insurgencies by the local communities. The data reveals that the security measures are baffling the environment. The local people are facing huge causalities and economic hinderances due to the clash between the insurgents group and Pakistan armed forces. In addition, the local people believe that CPEC phase 1 projects have improved the economic conditions of only a few people having which already have better investment opportunities. It has limited the economic opportunities for the local poor residents who were independent to conduct the economic acclivities before the CPEC project installations. The data also highlights that the biggest concern of the local people is that they are losing control over their territory and foreign control is increasing day by day. Moreover, they proposed the inclusivity of the local leaders of the communities to enhance the efficacy of the CPEC projects and combat terrorist attacks.
Looking ahead under the presidency of Zardari
Pakistan is facing the hot wave of hybrid war, unleashing multifaceted conflicts with the adversaries, including the Indian-led spying activities, Afghanistan-based terrorist attacks, and insurgencies from the internal political objective-oriented groups to provoke the populace against the Pakistan military forces. Pakistan and China have successfully developed AI-powered agricultural apps to monitor crops, and drones are facilitating the surveillance of crops. Both China and Pakistan must realize that there are more bellicose insects who are posing a threat to the environment by inflicting suicide attacks on the Chinese personnel and infrastructure projects related to the CPEC.
Pakistan has no doubt initiated numerous steps, such as the establishment of a special security division safeguarding the CPEC projects and Chinese nationals and countering terrorism and violent extremism. As Pakistan shares a long history of war on terror and strategy to counter such kinds of threats, it must learn from its Cold War-era ally, the U.S., to deal with these terrorist groups by deploying drone technology in stony and porous areas of Afghanistan and Iran. China should expand its scale of cooperation to support the development of drone technology in Pakistan, encourage Pakistan’s ambition to employ robotic warriors, and assist in deploying surveillance systems at the porous borders. These policies will not only revolutionize counter-terrorism strategies but also enhance the credibility of security measures to protect the CPEC projects and Chinese personnel working in Pakistan.
The governmnet of Zardari and Shehbaz ought to keep the local communities in the loop of decision-making in the soil of Balochistan and open the exclusive economic zones to the local people so they can get benefit from the economic prospects. On the other hand, the government must advance the joint ventures on the supply of anti-terrorism gadgetries, satellite cooperation to monitor the terrorist activities, and joint assessment drills as needed throughout the year. Pakistan and China should expand the scope of artificial intelligence from the crops’ pests to the states’ pests by establishing a de-radicalization center in the Balochistan. The socio-ethnic analysis of the terrorist attacks will significantly help to craft the policies on counter-terrorism and will enhance maneuverability of the operations and strategies launched by the Pakistan joint forces.
CPEC phase 2.0 is very crucial to achieving the goal of indigenous industrial development and overcoming fossil fuel and economic barriers to gain regional prosperity and stability. The Zardari and Sharif governments face more stringent waves of terrorism, separatism, and extremist movements. The world has seen the failure of the state-centric security approach to combat the terrorists; even the superpowers like the USSR and the U.S. failed to eliminate this curb. Thus, more holistic and reflexive security measures are necessary to bring the people from the Balochistan local communities into the loop. While making the decisions at the national level, it becomes instrumental to consider the narratives of the Balochistan people. Thus, the results prove that the Zardari and Shehbaz governments must maximize the participation of community workers in the loop to advance new projects in Balochistan to avoid economic and political casualties.
The author, is a student of International Relations at Punjab university having keen interests in Geopolitics, security studies and irregular warfare.
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