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Do We See Maldives on the Map By 2050? The Drowning Story of the Island State

A story with a happy ending is desired by everyone but not experienced by many. Some stories end in deaths and tragedies, while others ends sinking. Such is the case with the island state of South Asia, the Maldives. The beautiful island state, being the center of attraction for millions of people for tourism from all over the world due to its breathtaking views, beautiful clean water, and natural ecosystems, is facing a catastrophic story, and the villain of this story is none other than climate change. Increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and rapid change in weather patterns in the 21st century are affecting every other state of the world and have especially taken the states of the South Asian region under its full control.

The archipelagic state is the smallest in size in all of Asia, having a total land area of just 298 square kilometers. Overall, the contribution made by the Maldives to GHG emissions is only 0.0003 percent of total emissions. But it has received the worst impact of climate change and increased global warming. Sea level is rising at a rapid rate, the number of floods and periods of drought are increasing, rainfall patterns are changing, temperatures are rising, and extreme weather conditions are some of the outcomes of the climate change phenomenon. Along with the number of floods, the frequency of coastal erosion has also increased over the years.

The main reason behind this is the harsh activities of developed countries that are just fulfilling their capitalist agenda. Through continuous industrialization and growth, the amount of carbon dioxide and other harmful gases is increasing day by day, resulting in temperature rise, glacier melting, and other such outcomes. In this regard, the Maldives became a victim of these villainous actions. Thus, the country is on the verge of catastrophe. It is assumed that if the sea level continues to rise like this, then unfortunately, the whole country will disappear from the map by 2050. Estimates also show that the island state will become uninhabitable soon due to these events.

Furthermore, the available amount of water is gradually becoming unfit for use by the inhabitants. It is because salinity is increasing, making it difficult for the inhabitants to find fresh and clean water for drinking, cooking, and other purposes. Thus, dehydration among the individuals has also increased. Due to this contamination, agricultural production in the country also suffered a blow. The minimum number of crops grown in the country is decreasing day by day. These agricultural practices relied on monsoons and rains. But irregular rainfall patterns and unpredictable droughts have changed the whole picture. The rise of food scarcity in the state is seen. The Maldives now have to import these crops to feed the locals, which is posing a burden on the economic sector as well.

In addition to this, vector-borne diseases are also increasing in the country due to the saline water, including dengue and malaria. Along with these diseases, the air is no longer clean, and other health issues are also rising, such as asthma, lung cancer, bronchitis, and others. It is also creating a negative impact on the mental health of people. The happiness index ratio is decreasing with each passing day in the Maldives as people face challenges to survive. Coastal flooding is increasing continuously, damaging the infrastructure and taking the lives of millions of people residing there.

It is the story of about 1,190 islands and 5,15000 people facing the calamity of climate change and global warming. Along with humans, marine life is also endangered. The coral reefs, which make the country more beautiful and sustainable to live in, are going to go extinct in the near future due to increased ocean acidification. The phenomenon of coral bleaching is being witnessed and is gaining pace. It is disturbing the balance of the ecosystem and the workings of the normal Maldives. Conserving corals is important as it protects both the fishing and tourism industries, which are the two economic generators of the country.

It is observed that the tourism and fishing industries combined generate about 40% of a country’s GDP. Moreover, fisheries also serve as a staple food for the locals. Both the quantity and quality of fish are decreasing. The Maldives are no longer producing fish of export quality, which is posing a burden on their economy. Tourism alone produces one-third of the economy. Tourists from all over the world feel danger while visiting the Maldives, especially the capital city, Male, as the seawalls are no longer in a position to protect the city from coastal erosion and increased sea level. Fourteen islands have already been abandoned due to coastal erosion, decreasing tourism further.

No sound measurements are taken by the government, despite the miserable situation of the country. Although the country has signed many agreements and treaties that guarantee the survival of the state, like the Paris Peace Agreement, the Climate Emergency Act 2021, the Waste Management Act, and others, not much practical application has been done. Still, the majority of the islands are given to private owners for running luxurious resorts and attracting foreigners. It can be said aptly that pure capitalism is being witnessed in the area. Big resorts consisting of all the luxuries are being made to attract tourists, but alas, no one is thinking about the future of the country. Locals are ignored and no one is thinking about the consequences they are facing due to these changing climatic conditions. Their natural ecosystem is degrading, on which their lives are dependent. They are kept separated from the decision-making in this collective problem. Marginalized ones, including women, children, and elderly people, will face the most hazardous consequences of this drowning story.

This fact cannot be neglected: the Maldives can still do a lot to change their fate. They claimed to reduce their carbon emissions but little has been done in this regard. Under the Paris Agreement, the Maldives claimed to become a net zero emitter of carbon dioxide by 2030 but much still has to be done. A shift to renewable means is the most required step to survive. These renewable means will help the country run its daily chores, especially those involving electricity and transportation. Still for these purposes, fossil fuels are used, which generate carbon dioxide. In 2022, the country imported fuel worth about 800,000 tons for running its vehicles and electricity generation. If they shift to solar and wind power, then a stop to this import can be observed, which will ultimately improve their condition.

Thus, it can be concluded that the Maldives are drowning. It is believed that it will disappear from the maps by 2050. The government needs to adopt steps as soon as possible that will save individuals, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems. The government needs to introduce renewable energy sources at every level in order to run daily chores like electricity production for running boats, transportation services, and others. The center should also put a full stop to further construction of lavish resorts on these sinking islands so that further damage is not done. The construction of more airports particularly needs to be stopped as air traffic generates a large amount of carbon dioxide. Only then will this drowning story turn into a happy ending.

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The author is Yusra Sarwar. She is currently enrolled in the M.Phil. program in International Relations at National Defence University. Her areas of interest include the foreign policy of great powers, especially China, maritime security, sports, and climate change. The regions she is interested in looking into are the South Asian region and the Indo-Pacific region.

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