Port power has been an important aspect of power relations between states, not just for the purpose of trade and connectivity but also for establishing regional influence. The Chahbahar port is India’s strategic outlet for gaining access to middle-eastern countries and unlocking the economic potential associated with the middle-eastern countries. Recently, India and Iran renewed the port deal for 10 years, under which India has gained exclusive rights for the operation and management of Chahbahar port. However, India has been seeing the dreams of gaining control of the port for many years now. For the first time, India’s prime minister, Attal Bihari Vajpayee, held talks with Iranian president Syed Muhammad Khatami in 2002 to develop the port as a strategic trade route.
However, the diplomatic pressure exerted by the US forced both parties to abandon the deal. In addition to that, India’s economic conditions at the time were not strong enough to counter the US or go against its wishes. Then again in 2018, the deal was renewed for 2 years. Now access to Chahbahar port gives India access to Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. India can now use this trade route to boost its exports to central Asia and Afghanistan. Furthermore, this port provides India with an alternative from Gwadar Port in Pakistan. Previously, normalizing relations with Pakistan was the key condition to gain access to Gwadar port and hence ensure regional connectivity with central Asian countries. The increased investment of China in the Gwadar port prompted India to counterbalance China and, hence, increase its port powers. However, China’s port power is unmatched in this regard, with 96 ports worldwide. India can at least counter it regionally by being self-sufficient and not relying on Chinese-developed ports like Gwadar.
India has already invested 120 million dollars in the port for trade purposes and 250 million dollars in the infrastructure of the port. The development of this port has significant risks for Pakistan, though not directly but indirectly. The enhanced trade relations facilitated by the Chahbahar port will allow India to establish its soft power in the middle-eastern region and strengthen ties with the Central Asian countries, thereby weakening the soft power of Pakistan. This connectivity will allow India to increase people-to-people connectivity, thus forming a complex interdependence network that is founded on not only economic relations but also personal relations. Complex interdependence is a phenomenon whereby states increase their trade and economic relations by boosting imports and exports. It falls under neo-liberalism and entails the idea that cooperation in the economic sector will eventually spill over and lead to cooperation in other sectors. As of now, Afghanistan is dependent on Pakistan for its imports and exports, but the development of Chahbahar will enable Afghanistan to be independent of Pakistan.
India-Iran relations can follow the same trajectory and lead to better relations between the two countries. This will undermine the significance of Pakistan in diplomatic relations, and Iran and other Central Asian countries might be compelled to side with India in diplomatic and other security conflicts. Another important aspect of the project is that Afghanistan will be less dependent on Pakistan and can have an alternative in the form of Iran. Iran can also recover from the international isolation it has been facing for years and gain an opportunity to regain its influence in the middle-eastern region. Lack of economic involvement hinders a state from developing diplomatic influence, which is imposed on Iran due to the sanctions imposed on it. In addition to that, Iran can attract foreign investment and promote industrialization in the Chahbahar region, facilitated by the swift transport of goods.
India can seize the opportunity to weaken Pakistan-Afghan relations and have a say in the diplomatic relations of the Middle East. In addition to that, there are security challenges associated with the development of Chabahar. The terrorist groups located on the outskirts of Iran can easily gain access to Pakistan, and there can be a surge in terrorism in these countries. India can open the door to resource-rich Central Asian countries, and its investment in the region can create dependence on India and favor a positive image of India in the Middle Eastern region. This will create a complicated situation for Pakistan as it navigates relations with central Asian countries. Nonetheless, economically, Gwadar Port in Pakistan places Pakistan in a secure position. Since China has been investing large amounts—almost $1.02 billion into the Gwadar port to revolutionize the condition of the Baluchistan region and promote development in the region. But diplomatically, Chabahar does pose a challenge for Pakistan.
Hamna Imran is an undergraduate student at National Defense University, specializing in defense and security issues of South Asia. She contributes insightful op-ed articles to Global Defense Insight and Stratheia.
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