The theory of Sea Power by Alfred Mahan holds its importance as it discusses that , one that rules the sea rules the world and it is evident all around the globe. China understands the value of the sea and its routes very well especially for a trade-oriented economy like itself, which is very clear through the situation going on in the South China Sea. The current situation in the South China Sea is marked by territorial disputes among the regional states. The claimant states include China, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and Taiwan.These nations have overlapping territorial claims in the sea, aiming to assert ownership over strategic islands and reserves of natural oil and gas. Among these states, China claims the largest portion of the Sea almost 90% , this claim is based on its historical Nine-Dash Line . The issue has been going on for more than a few decades but it caught global attention when the Philippines filed a case against China in 2013 at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA). Despite the PCA passing the ruling in favor of the Philippines in 2016 under the UNCLOS, China still holds its claims and refuses to step back.The tensions have been escalating in recent years as several clashes and unfortunate incidents occurred between China and the Philippines.
In August 2023, a Chinese coast guard vessel blocked a Filipino ship and used water cannons on it. This year, there have been a number of incidents between both states out of which there were six incidents reported in just the month of August. Most of these incidents took place near Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal near the Spratly Islands, which hold the utmost importance in this issue due to their strategic location. Recently another incident occurred where Chinese military ships harassed Vietnamese fishermen’s boats claiming that they were crossing the boundaries to which Vietnam denied the accusation. The Philippines supported Vietnam’s statement and wished for supporting behavior from Vietnam regarding this issue in the future. There might be a chance that both states would put their shared claims aside and address the situation in unison. Apart from these two states, other claimant states like Brunei and Indonesia have also been facing certain frictions from China. Indonesia has reinforced its military presence around the Natuna Islands due to on and off presence of China fishing and coast guard ships in its exclusive economic zones (EEZ). While Brunei is facing hindrance in its energy exploring activities in waters near the Spratly Islands with China regularly sending its ships. China has been conducting military exercises separately and in collaboration with other states like Russia in the region to assert its strength. This proves concerning for the regional states as they don’t hold such military power to counterbalance China in the region.
Recently, the Philippines has reached out to the U.S. to extend its help and donate missile cruisers to the Philippines so that the country can showcase its strength and guard its national interest. The major powers like the U.S. have shown their willingness to help regional states in balancing the power in the region as it aligns with their interests as well. However, international interference has been proven largely ineffective in the past. The presence of the U.S. hasn’t stopped the clashes between claimant states like the Philippines and Vietnam with China. Although ASEAN as an entity has been avoiding addressing the situation and claims of the claimant states, it is time for it to look into this matter more seriously as the escalation of the situation will undeniably affect the whole region. The ASEAN states need to address this issue as one but the problem arises where all of these states have shared claims on the different parts of the Sea. Also, all the Southeast Asian states depend heavily on trade relations with China and can’t afford to put a strain on them as ASEAN is focused on economic prosperity rather than conflict resolution and they can’t jeopardize their main objective. Countries like the Philippines and Vietnam which are directly involved in the clashes are more vocal about their stance against China’s actions. On the other hand, the states that aren’t getting direct impact from these clashes, like Cambodia, and Laos are hesitant to side with other regional states as it will put a strain on their relations with China which they can’t afford. Furthermore, China puts emphasis on solving the issues bilaterally which is clear from the events from the past.
China refused the involvement of the U.S. or the UN in resolving the issues with the Philippines back in 2016, making it clear that the issue would be tackled between the two states, and that there is no need for intervention from outside. China still remains firm on its stance regarding the nature of issues with any of the regional countries. ASEAN states are interested in keeping the region peaceful but the economic and geopolitical differences make it difficult for them to come out a combined front against China’s advancements in the South China Sea. This regional organization needs to work on making its goals and aims clearer and assert its emphasis on them. They need to take a stand for their concerned nation as the advancements of China violate ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia. This treaty aims for mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national identity of all nations. Although ASEAN states have continuously emphasized on implementation of a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea to avoid military confrontations, disputes, and provision of a framework, but till now it hasn’t proven effective . Therefore, relying solely on it is not the solution. They need to stand up and voice out their unity in standing up for the principles of their organization. In this way, they won’t be making any major powers concerned with their statement and maintain a good relationship while safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their own nations.
A passionate researcher equipped with strong critical and analytical thinking, having a keen interest in Asia-Pacific region.
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