The announcement of Operation Azm e Istehkam continues to receive mixed reviews from the public and other stakeholders. The operation is conducive to addressing domestic security, political, and economic problems, with the additional aim of satisfying Chinese security concerns. However, despite the Shahbaz government’s effort to pacify the resistance, the effort to bring peace, stability, and international acclaim to the country seems to divide domestic stakeholders due to their apprehensions about the efficiency of the initiative. This article aims to use SWOT analysis as a framework to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats corresponding to Operation Azm e Istehkam. The focus remains on the robustness of the operation as well as current and probable future challenges.
Strengths:
Pakistan’s launch of counterterrorism operation Azm e Istehkam, Resolve for Stability, seems to be an effort aimed at curbing domestic terrorism and championing international acclaim for the country. The government explains the initiative as a non-kinetic counter-terrorism measure that is not as large as previous campaigns like Zarb e Azb or Rah e Haq but rather a “multi-domain, multi-agency” vision to promise security and stability in the country. The operation will be the 12th major military operation against Islamist terrorists since 2007 as a reinvigorated and re-energized counterterrorism strategy at the national level. It is a comprehensive and decisive proposition against extremism and terrorism in the country and incorporates a multi-pronged policy, accompanied by legislative surety to prevent smuggling and punish any discrepancy under the law. The plan, which aims to strengthen already existing intelligence-based operations rather than launch a new one, will also incorporate socioeconomic measures to address the concerns of the population and create an environment insulated from terrorist tendencies.
The operation has some unique features: a constitutional basis, the input of civil law enforcing agency chiefs, prominent participation from different ministries, party leaderships, chief secretaries of provinces, the Army Chief, and DG ISI.
PM Shahbaz has ensured that the operation will be carried out against terrorists only and will not involve trouble among civilians or raids of their houses. The PM Office has also confirmed that this operation involves consensus among all stakeholders, i.e., provinces, Gilgit Baltistan, Kashmir, and the Central Apex Committee of the National Action Plan. The PM Office has taken the federal cabinet into confidence, and Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has ensured the provision of a satisfactory answer to PTI over its concerns. The Pakistan People’s Party has also decided to back the initiative. Moreover, the United States vocalized its support for the initiative and had ensured counterterrorism capacity-building programs and military engagements via the State Department’s spokesperson, Matthew Miller.
Weaknesses:
The robustness of the initiative stays under question as the government continues to face a lack of unity among domestic stakeholders. The announcement has raised concerns, particularly among PTI, ANP, Jamat e Islami, and JUI-F. These political parties demand justification from the government with respect to the consequences, scale, and scope of the operation. Moreover, the Sunni Itehad Council also opposed and raised slogans against the launch of the new operation during the National Assembly session. The Shahbaz government faces a compulsion to address the concerns of the opposition parties.
Opportunities:
As far as opportunities are concerned, the operation is an attempt to deal with the recent wave of terrorism in Pakistan, stop bloodshed, defend citizens, bring an end to destruction, and improve the economic condition of a country that is particularly vulnerable to terrorism. This operation seems specifically viable when security forces have been under attack by militants using advanced equipment and techniques. Moreover, the effort will be conducive to stopping the smuggling and transport of money used to fund terrorism and bringing long-term peace and stability. Peace and stability are especially crucial for boosting economic activities in Baluchistan and KP.
Under this operation, Pakistan could attack terrorist hideouts across the border in Afghanistan without violating international law. Pakistan will ensure security across the Pakistan-Afghan border, allow the entry of people from Afghanistan on the grounds of valid documentation and visas, and prevent the influx of militants and smuggled goods across the border.
The operation will be immensely beneficial to address security concerns and prevent attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan. Operation Azm e Istehkam will prove beneficial to address Pakistan’s inability to protect Chinese nationals, pacify China, and subside her disappointment in the Pakistani government. This will be a crucial step to attract foreign investment from China and limit growing dissatisfaction among the local Pakistani population as well.
Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Mr. Masood Khan, has requested the need for sophisticated small arms and communication equipment from the U.S. to ensure the success of the operation. Khan highlighted the threefold ideational, operational, and societal strategy of the operation and has demanded a revision of U.S.-Pakistan relations with strengthened security links and intelligence cooperation to better deal with the rise of terrorism and work towards regional security threats.
Threats:
The announcement by the Shahbaz government raises suspicion about the motives and timing of the launch, particularly when intelligence-based counterterrorism operations are already being carried out in KPK and Baluchistan. Apprehensions continue to spur debate, particularly about the interference in tribal areas, civilian causalities, and population displacements based on past experiences with such operations.
The head of the opposition alliance Tehreek e Tahafuz e Aain e Pakistan and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Party, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, has warned to increase the opposition to the operation and to file an appeal to the ICJ. Asad Qaiser raised his voice against the initiative by saying that “tribal people do not want any fight in their areas, and resistance will be shown in case of any imposed operation. The people of KPK want peace, education, and employment.” Advisor to Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Information, Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, has condemned the association of terrorism with one province rather than viewing it as an issue of national concern. He further affirmed that operations will be initiated in KP only after approval from the provincial assembly.
The accusations of human rights violations, including mistreatment of civilians, civilian displacements, and disappearances in the battle zones of KPK and Baluchistan, bring Pakistan’s commitment to international humanitarian law into question and tend to jeopardize the country’s relations with the international community. Moreover, the effort to initiate counter-terrorism operations across the Pakistan-Afghan border might accelerate tensions between the two countries.
Those resisting the operation have also been questioned about their intentions and are being termed supporters of terrorism. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has particularly alluded to the fact that the political parties are in opposition to the operation on political grounds and are giving primacy to political goals over national interests.
Conclusion:
The initiative will be favorable in terms of limiting domestic and cross-border terrorism, thereby improving the economic situation of the country by addressing Chinese concerns over infrastructure security. However, despite conducive objectives, a fresh counterterrorism perspective, and a clear-cut way forward, Operation Azm e Istehkam continues to receive skepticism and ambivalence. The reassurances by the Shahbaz government tend to bear little to no fruit and continue to divide domestic stakeholders. The debate on this initiative particularly leads to a schism between supporters as the champions of national interest on the one hand and those opposing it being labeled as supporters of terrorism, prioritizing political goals over national security on the other.
Moreover, targeting cross-border fighters from Afghanistan is itself open to risk and retaliation. The discussion of population displacement, civilian casualties, human rights violations, and interference in tribal areas continues to hold a central position, thereby creating apprehensions about the operation. Greater cooperation and acceptance among domestic stakeholders is required, along with the solidarity of the public with the armed forces. However, championing unity at the national level continues to remain a concern. The lack of public support in terrorism-affected areas will impact the operation’s robustness.
The author is an undergraduate student at the National Defense University Islamabad, doing a BS in International Relations. The area of research remains traditional and nontraditional security issues in South Asia.
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