Space exploration, which used to be a glorified topic in movies out of people’s fascination, moves more toward the strategic plan in the contemporary world. The cosmos or what is metaphorically called the “final frontier,” is gradually being turned into the next domain for geopolitical rivalry and conflict that brings the gloom of the modern version of a cold war with it. More than ever, the powers like the United States, China, and Russia, whose space programs are most assertive, bring high-profile risks into space cooperation. This op-ed explores how the geopolitics of space are evolving, what threats this process presents and the ways to avoid plunging into a new level of world tensions accompanied by the militarization of space.
The Battle to Become the World’s Space Superpower
Collecting spaceracy is not a new thing in the world, as people have been striving to conquer space for so many decades. The Cold War between America and the Soviet Union witnessed the start of the space race and some of the major milestones of the race included the U.S.S.R. launch of Sputnik in 1957 and the Apollo space mission of the United States that landed on the moon in 1969. But today’s space race is different from the first race in as much as the race itself. It is not just a question of demonstrating the capabilities of a nation’s technology or even national ego; it is about establishing positions that could shape the destiny of nations and continents for many decades.
Recently, the USA has re-joined the space race by creating the new US. Space Force—the branch of the military that is focused on maintaining the superior position of America in space. On the other hand, China is now a fast-growing nation and through the Change missions to the moon and the Tianwen-1 mission to Mars, it has established itself as a major spacefaring nation. Russia also has a Roscosmos agency and also has a history of space travel, not as enriched as America but close enough. All these changes are an indication that all the powers of the world are coming to realize that space is not merely the next domain but a core strategic and economic space.
Space as a Strategic Domain
Militarization of space is already a challenge, with states bringing into development means potentially capable of interfering or denying space-based systems and causing them harm, interrupting programs used for communication, and also laying down arms and systems in space. It is indeed interesting to note that space as a strategic domain has transferred from pure fiction to real life, where command over space resources can symbolize considerable military and commercial power. Satellites, as we know them, are an integral part of modern communication, navigation, and intelligence systems and, as such, strategic in case of a war.
A Chinese ASAT weapon test carried out in 2007 by shooting down one of its own weather satellites became a reminder of weakness in space assets. Both the US and Russia have also tested similar technologies and thus there is usually fear of weaponization of space. It is not just hypothetical that space is a future battlefield of choice.
The next step is to find out whether there is a risk of a new Cold War when one looks at the big picture. The similarities between today’s space race and the Cold War are very close. Much like the Cold War had the USA and USSR fighting for dominance on earth, contemporary great powers are into a war of supremacy in space. However, as compared to the cold war, where the risk of mutually assured destruction would have checked everyone, space is an unpredictable arena that can trigger instability. The public international space law has not set specific rules and norms that, in effect, raise the prospect of blunders and an inadvertent sliding into conflict.
Therefore, a new Cold War in space could be thought to have large effects on international security. A war in space could therefore snowball; the use of space-based weapons or the targeting of satellites could set off a series of events that create havoc on Earth. For instance, the elimination of strategic satellites damages communication systems, messes up the financial sector and can even threaten facilities like power and transport systems. This is particularly because it is hard to determine where space warfare ends and conventional warfare begins, especially when such actions are thrown back to the ‘outer space’.
The Need for International Cooperation
But space is still common in today’s global environment and the idea of turning it into a battlefield is beneficial for no one. On October 10, 1967, a total of 100 countries, including the United States, Russia, and China, signed the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which states that nuclear weapons are prohibited to be deployed anywhere in space and that the exploration of space is to be peaceful. Yet the treaty still remains the only legal instrument governing space activities and is incapable of dealing with modern space activities such as satellite constellations, space debris, and the development of ASAT technologies, among others.
However, current international treaties do not meet the needs of today’s space activities, which have created a certain space arms race; therefore, there is an urgent need to update international treaties for space activities. It should outline procedures for utilization of the space in a military context, procedures for openness and trust, as well as procedures in relation to the appropriate and efficient use of space resources. Also, emphasis should be given to a shared research infrastructure that is the International Space Station as an example of an integrated multispace agency model.
Conclusion: Space as a Future of Both
The expansion of space is one of the most important potential markets as well as knowledge, which people can gain in the future. However, one has to admit that if such tendencies as militarization and competition for space resources persist in the future, space can become not the field for discovery but the place for confrontation. It is out of bounds for space to be the next theater of operation as the world enjoys more warfare than peace.
In order to prevent a new Cold War in space, the great powers have to adopt diplomacy, come to terms with the rules of the road, and create conditions that will exclude the attempt to turn space into a battlefield. So in effect, the future of space, or the space-computer complex that is being formed, is not just the next technological frontier; it is a vision of humanity’s future for all humanity; it is the emergence of a Fourth World. Thus, aiming at cooperation instead of competition, we will make sure that the final frontier stays unblemished as the representation of human devotion to overcoming difficulties and challenges.
Wania Jahangir Khan is a student specializing in Defence and Diplomatic Studies with a keen interest in Pakistan-US Relations and its future dynamics. She explores the intricate aspects of diplomatic engagements and strategic alignments between the two nations, focusing on geopolitical shifts, policy implications, and bilateral cooperation efforts.
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