An insight into how Iran and it’s allies deal with their sanctioned economies
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been sanctioned many times; therefore, sanctions are not new to it. EU has once more sanctioned the republic for supplying drones to Russia which are allegedly used against Ukraine. However, these sanctions have come just a few days after President Raisi’s death. The EU has decided to sanction nine Iranian entities including the country’s Defense Minister Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani. These sanctions incorporate travel bans on individuals, funds freeze for individuals and entities, and forbidding collecting funds or resources for those included in the sanction list. Iran has also been accused of being involved in supporting other like-minded states. Some analysts contend that to understand Iran’s current status its past must also be considered.
The Glory of the Persian Empire
Ancient Persia (Iran) was a powerful state but lost that power and empire. Most Iranians due to their country’s magnificent background want modern-day Iran to influence international and regional politics. Various empires ruled Iran for centuries until the Muslim-Arab Invasion in the 7th century.
Iran’s Enmity with the United States
Even though Iran never became a British colony oil was discovered by the British. The oil- discovery resulted in the creation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Iranian historians believe that both the US and Britain had staged the 1953 coup to ouster the elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh for nationalizing oil. The peaceful reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ended 26 years later with the arrival of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as Iran’s supreme leader. Iran under Khomeini became the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The country during Ayatollah Khomeini’s rule ended its Western alliance as the crowds chanted “Death to the Americans, death to the Shah, death to Carter.” Tensions between Iran and the US accelerated when a group of students supporting Khomeini’s regime stormed the American Embassy in Tehran. The deadlock continued for 444 days resulting in international sanctions. In the aftermath of this incident, Iran has been in a struggle to protect its regime fearing that the US might topple the republic. Iran and the United States have witnessed outbursts of violence such as an Iranian airliner shot by the US airstrikes killing 290 people. In 2020 after an episode of increased conflict, Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani was killed in an American airstrike which was launched in self-defense.
Middle East and Iran’s Missile Program
The United States estimated that the allegedly Iranian-backed militia operating in the Middle East carried out 170 attacks during the Israel-Gaza war in 2023. However, Iran denied its involvement stating that the networks operating in the Middle East do not take orders from Tehran. The 7th October incident eventually resulted in the Israel-Gaza war but Iran despite denying its involvement supported the actions of Hamas. According to the Western perspective, Iran supported Hamas without involving Hezbollah or other members of the Axis of resistance in direct conflict with the US and Israel.
Some scholars believe that the Iran-Suadi rivalry resulted in Iran providing political support to Bashar- Al Assad against Saudi Arabia and its Western supporters. International observers claim that Iran does not want any battle inside its borders as it was difficult for Iran to recover from the Iran-Iraq war. Iran’s military strategy is designed to avoid any direct conflict therefore Iran has developed its missile program. Iran due to its missile program can exercise deterrence against any potential attack on its soil, other than projecting its power outside its borders. In January 2024 Iran attacked the so-called enemy targets in Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria. However, Pakistan retaliated as it did not want Iran to undermine its defense capabilities.
Iran’s Mysterious Nuclear Weapon
Some scholars believe that Iran would attempt to maintain its diminishing regional deterrence by acquiring a nuclear weapon. The United States claims not to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. However, the 2023 US intelligence report suggests that Iran is weeks away from manufacturing one.
Iran’s Ballistic Missile System in the Ukraine War
Earlier this year reports suggested that Russia and Iran had been strengthening their ties. Iran was accused of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia by the Western media. According to reports Iran had provided Russia with powerful surface-to-surface missiles. Iran had allegedly supplied “Shahid KamiKazi” drones to Russia. Moreover, Ukraine stated that Russia launched more than 3700 drones in December alone. According to experts, the Iranian missile gave Russia a greater advantage against Ukraine.
The Emergence of a New Bloc
Iran’s growing ties with China also raised concerns in the Western world. Tehran’s clerics believe that allying with Russia and China helped Tehran cope with US sanctions and end its political isolation. After the demise of the Soviet Union, there was no country capable of challenging the United States. However, states such as Iran, Russia, and China have always been against the increasing US influence in their regions. Experts claim that the US committed “strategic blunders” in Iraq and Afghanistan and failed to establish stability in Syria and Libya. Therefore, these wars have affected the United States’ image globally. Eventually, states like Iran, Russia, and China which were against America’s unilateral influence vehemently criticized the international order that emerged after the Cold War.
International observers have been intrigued to examine whether Iran, Russia, and China will ally to become similar to NATO or if this alliance is situational. It was after the demise of the Soviet Union and Moscow’s anti-Western approach that brought Iran and Russia closer. Iran and China had no remarkable relations due to their geographical distance. Bilateral relations between Iran and China grew stronger in the 21st century after China emerged as a global player. This bilateral relations between Iran and China became multilateral cooperation in certain fields. Sanctions against Russia in 2014 and the war in Syria brought Iran and Russia closer and both states signed a treaty “Oil for Good” the same year. This treaty was estimated to be worth 20 billion USD. In light of this treaty, Russia purchased 500K barrels of Iran’s oil by the day against Russian goods. This deal was designed to ease the pressure caused by the sanctions imposed on both states. Experts believe that Iran’s experience in avoiding international sanctions has helped Russia, especially after the Ukraine war in February 2022.
Sanctions imposed on both countries brought them closer boosting their economies—the Russo-Iranian trade turnover increased to 4 billion USD in 2022. Iran’s military and political cooperation is closely interlaced with its “nuclear question.” The close military partnership between the two states was hampered for some time due to Iran’s denial to stop uranium enrichment. Consequently, the UN imposed sanctions on selling heavy weapons to Iran, which caused Russia to prohibit sales of S-air defense systems, and other military supplies to Iran. However, military and diplomatic cooperation between the two countries had become stronger due to the war in Syria. Both the states backed Asad’s regime therefore, the Syrian war became a watershed moment.
Russo-Iranian military cooperation became stronger after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukraine war hindered Russia’s military production to some extent due to the sanctions. Hence, Russia went to Tehran to seek a weapons supply deal with Iran. Therefore, Iran has been accused of supplying weapons to Russia since September 2022 which have been used against Ukraine. Experts suggest that Iran in exchange might have received captured Western Weapons. The Sino-Iranian relations have also become stronger as China has cooperated with Iran in the energy domain. China imports oil and gas from Iran which helps it survive despite heavy sanctions.
In 2011 China bought exclusive rights to some Iranian oil and gas fields. China’s cooperation with Iran intensified only after the signing of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015. Iran and China in 2021 signed the 25-year strategic partnership treaty. China has realized that Iran is the alternative route for China to connect to Europe through its Belt and Road Initiative. Moreover, China has made huge investments in Iran’s infrastructure, Tehran’s subway, dams, and factories other than extracting Zinc, copper, and coal. Russia is against the expansion of NATO and the surfacing of pro-western governments in the former Soviet Republics. Iran and China are following the Russia position.
Tehran is against the American presence in the Middle East supported by China and Russia. Leading expert Zafar Bangash believes “There, is a convergence of views, between Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow in confronting the US aggression. This is beginning to take the shape of a tripartite alliance that will not only confront but expel American mischief-mongers …” Some scholars question whether the three states can become the center of the new surfacing block. Experts claim that in 1992 Russia and China were only interested in facilitating Iran’s civilian nuclear power. In 1995 Russia promised to build the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran but later succumbed to US pressure and selling weapons to Iran. Russia built the Power Plant, unlike China which withdrew its commitment to build several power plants. The Iranian nuclear program gained attention in the early 2000s. Russia and China were among the states asking for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Some scholars believe Russia and China do not want another nuclear weapon in the region as it would alter the balance of power in Eurasia.
US Sanctions and President Raisi’s Plane Crash
Russian President Vladimir Putin has strongly criticized the United States’ reaction to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death. Putin also offered assistance in investigating the “True Cause of Crash.” Analysts suggest that Putin seems to blame the US for Raisi’s crash. Some analysts suggest that this accusation can be problematic. Therefore, the US and Israel have informed the world of having no role in Raisi’s crash. Heavily sanctioned Iran’s former foreign minister has accused the US sanctions for Raisi’s death. Indeed, Iran cannot access aviation parts military or civilian. Analysts suggest that it is true that Iran’s commercial lines were cut right after the revolution but Iran should have upgraded its aviation industry. Iran uses some of the oldest airplanes in the world as no new planes have been manufactured after the reign of the Shah. Iran is steadily progressing financially as it is an ally of Russia and China. Iran despite being heavily sanctioned has managed to make its economy progress by allying with Russia and China.
The author holds a Master’s degree in Peace Conflict and Development from the prestigious University of Bradford UK and writes on security-related issues.
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