Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination likely to mark a dangerous development in the region
The killing of Ismail Haniyeh the political leader of Hamas is feared to trigger a wider conflict in the Middle East. Ismail Haniyeh was Iran’s official guest of honor at the oath-taking ceremony of the new President Mosuad Pezeshikan. During his visit, he also met the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Hours before his death Haniyeh attended President Pezeshikan’s oath-taking ceremony. Haniyeh was killed along with his driver in the guest house where he was staying. Israeli attacks were also carried out in Beirut and Baghdad killing Hezbollah’s commander. Deaths resulting from Israel’s attacks in Baghdad, Beirut, and Tehran have grieved the people of these cities. Iran’s Supreme leader has sworn to avenge Israel after the killing of Haniyeh. The attack on Golan Heights killed twelve children infuriating Israel to attack the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
Israel vs Hezbollah and Hamas
Hamas and Hezbollah are considered the regional allies of Iran. Israel’s response to Hezbollah was inevitable after the Lebanese group had attacked the Golan Heights killing Twelve children. Therefore, the Israeli strike in the southern suburb of Lebanon’s capital Beirut killed Hezbollah’s commander Faud Shukar. However, Hezbollah has denied its responsibility for the attacks on Golan Heights. The Lebanese armed group has blamed Israel for killing 3 people along with the Hezbollah commander while injuring 74. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the Israeli attack by calling it “blatant aggression.” Some news sources suggest that Israel had informed the US of its plan to attack before the airstrike. Hezbollah’s commander Shukar had been involved in the 1983 bomb attacks on US soldiers in Beirut.
However, the attack on the chief of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh was unexpected and shocked the world. Israel has neither claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death nor denied it. Haniyeh’s assassination has been severely condemned by Lebanon, Turkey, China, and Russia warning of further instability in the region. Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Nastasyin stated that “the organizers of this political assassination will bear the dangerous consequences of this action for the entire region.” Ismail Haniyeh’s death was celebrated in Israel as several ministers along with the general public expressed satisfaction over their Hamas chief’s death and took to social media.
“Haniyeh’s death makes the world a better place.”
“Yes, all your enemies will perish O God”
Contrary to the above statements the Muslim world mourned the death of Haniyeh. The people of Palestine said that Haniyeh’s death would strengthen their resistance. Hezbollah and Hamas are Iran’s regional allies so the question arises will Iran mobilize its allies against Israel?
Ismail Haniyeh
The death of Ismail Haniyeh was condemned all around the Muslim world. Haniyeh joined Hamas in the 1980s and in 2017 he became the political face of Hamas. Haniyeh lost three sons and four grandchildren since last October. Despite that, he was considered moderate in contrast to the other extremists in Hamas. Haniyeh was seen as a coordinator despite his loss he continued his peace effort. Ismail Haniyeh briefly served as the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority. Despite being seen as a symbol of resistance in Gaza Haniyeh was declared a terrorist. Haniyeh remained a controversial figure in the Western world as he was accused of killing thousands of innocent Israelis.
Iran
Iran is considered Israel’s biggest enemy with several proxies across the region. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed to punish Israel. Since Ismail Haniyeh was killed on Iran’s soil therefore the regime considers its duty to retaliate to Israel’s aggression. Haniyeh’s death has escalated the already volatile region. There was outrage on the streets in Iran as protestors chanted anti-Israel slogans. Thousands gathered for the funeral of Ismail Haniyeh. It is feared that Haniyeh’s grief might change into anger and revenge.
The world seems to be waiting for Iran’s response but the gravity of Iran’s response relies on a few factors. The 7th October activity by Hamas has resulted in Israel’s occupation of Gaza hence both states are constraining. Both sides do not want an all-out war but want to flex their muscles by avoiding a full-blown regional war. In April Israeli strikes on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria resulted in Iran’s retaliation. Iran shot hundreds of missiles fired at Israel. These missiles were shot down by Israel. Moreover, the attack on Israel was telegraphed so the Jewish state could shoot down the missiles. Iran uses its proxies to deal with and pressurize Israel. while Israel fights with Iran’s allies in addition to directly hitting Iran inside its territory.
Israel
An unnamed Israeli strike killed the Hezbollah commander Faud Shukr hours before Hamas Chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed. Israel Defense Force IDF has claimed responsibility for the attack that killed Shukr. According to reports the strike also killed three civilians including two children while 74 were injured. Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari did not accept Israel’s involvement in Beirut strikes.
“There was no additional airstrike, not a missile, and not an Israeli drone, in the entire Middle East that night,” he said.”
News sources claim that Haniyeh was on Israel’s hit list after the Hamas-led 7th October attacks which killed 12,00 people while 251 were taken hostage. Soon after Ismail Haniyeh’s death, a video showing him celebrating the October 7th massacre surfaced online. Israel’s War Room X shared a video on X with the caption “he is not celebrating anymore.” Ismail Haniyeh’s death has become more controversial after the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal claimed that a bomb was planted weeks earlier. Reports suggest that a bomb was already planted and denoted in Iran’s security compound weeks or probably months before Haniyeh arrived at Iran’s government accommodation. The international community has called Iran’s security breach ‘stunning and humiliating.”
Israel’s Preparation for War
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the killings of Hezbollah leader in Beirut and Hamas leader in Tehran. “Israel will respond forcefully to any attack on it” Netanyahu further claimed. “Citizens of Israel challenging days lie ahead. Since the strike in Beirut, threats have been sounding from all directions. We are prepared for any scenario and we will stand united and determined “
West Asia Plunges into More Conflict
The already volatile West Asia is expected to further plunge into instability and a wider conflict. With fears of instability in the region, airlines have canceled flights to Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. US Republican Congresswoman Lisa McClain praised Israel for killing Haniyeh even though Israel has not taken responsibility for the killing of Hamas’s political leader. McClain claimed that the “world is safer” after the killings of Shukr and Haniyeh. Reports suggest that Netanyahu’s office claims negotiations will be held in Cairo on Sunday. Iran’s supreme leader has ordered a direct attack on Israel while Iranian officials met representatives of regional allies to plan a retaliation attack against Israel. All fronts of Palestinian resistance have claimed “to take revenge for Haniyeh’s blood.”
An All-Out War in the Middle East
Iran’s Axis of Resistance claims to avenge Haniyeh’s blood while the Israeli PM is committed to fighting against Hamas until total victory is achieved. The situation in the Middle East is getting tense as some anticipate an all-out war. The truth is that Israel, Iran, and Lebanon might not be able to afford an all-out war. Therefore, Iran, Israel, and its Western allies would not support an all-out war. Israel, Iran, and its allies may prefer restrained aggression to avoid an all-out war despite Israel’s preparation for war. The world cannot afford an all-out war in the Middle East. Therefore, efforts will be made by the international community to stop an all-out war in the region.
The author holds a Master’s degree in Peace Conflict and Development from the prestigious University of Bradford UK and writes on security-related issues.
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