The Indo-Pacific region has gained prominence over the past years in the context of global security and geo-political relations pertaining to the strategic manoeuvres of major global players. Australia has proven to be successful in gaining global recognition as a middle power via AUKUS.
AUKUS has transformed the defence posture and global prominence of Australia. It presents both challenges and opportunities for Australia. This trilateral security agreement serves as the emblem of Australia’s ambition to preserve itself as a major player in Indo-Pacific security arrangement. This research article intends to analyse Australia’s trajectory as a regional middle power through the lens of AUKUS.
What is AUKUS?
The AUKUS alliance is an enhanced trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom which intends to back the mutual security and defence needs of all partner countries. AUKUS includes two integrated lines of achievements known as Pillar I and Pillar II, respectively.
Pillars of AUKUS
The first pillar revolves around the procurement of nuclear submarines for the Royal Australian Navy while rotational strategic depth of the US and the UK submarines. The second pillar aims to enhance the joint capabilities of the partner countries in the respective domains of artificial intelligence, cyber security, sea capabilities, and quantum technologies.
Australia’s Strategic Calculus and AUKUS
Throughout the post-war period, Australia has secured its conventional security primarily by its mutual defence pact with the United States and New Zealand known as ANZUS along with the ‘Five Eyes Signals’ intelligence sharing agreement with the US, the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand.
With China growing more assertive and the Sino-US rivalry reaching its zenith, Australia now finds itself wedged between the two powers in a strategic quagmire. In addition, it also makes it more challenging for Australia to insulate its commercial interests from the regional tensions at the geopolitical front.
China’s military build-up has proven detrimental to the regional security dynamics, heightening the paranoia of the regional powers surrounding the security dilemma and maintenance of equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific. As Australia lacks formidable military capabilities owing to in efficacious procurement practices, unserviceable materials, and failure to achieve recruitment targets, the security and defence dynamics are seriously deficient and undermined for the middle power. This situation entails that a failure to capitalise on AUKUS could diminish Australia’s role as a regional player in the Indo-Pacific.
How AUKUS Strengthens the National Security of Australia
Australia has been striving to contribute towards a more favourable balance of power through AUKUS. This will allow Australia to operationalise 8 nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) by the 2050s which will enable projection of power by granting Australian Defence Force (ADF) a regionally superior capability and thereby establish deterrence against any aggression directed towards the security and national interests of Australia.
These SSNs are versatile, country-agnostic and possess an unlimited range, armed with Tomahawk missiles. These are intermediate-range, subsonic cruise missiles that can carry either conventional or nuclear payloads and provide a long-range deep strike capability, ensuring that the missile can reach targets at a 1500 kilometres distance. In addition, Australia is equipping itself with the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) . HIMARS is a mobile artillery system, offering Multiple Launch Rocket System firepower. Together, such defence systems will prove that the AUKUS submarines will be the apex predators of the oceans.
Economics in the Realm of AUKUS
According to the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR), China spends the highest amongst the next 25 largest regional countries combined and has raised defence budget and military spending by 75% over the past 10 years. In retaliation, Australia’s New Strategy for Defence highlights the recalibration of strategies to adopt a proactive conflict prevention approach to prevent coercion.
Moreover, the Australian Ministry of Defence has announced that Canberra will also pursue massive defence budget increases with doubling of defence spending within 10 years from approximately $35 billion USD in 2024 to over $66 billion by 2033. Australia increased its defence budget to successfully implement the 6 immediate priorities of the Government in line with the Defence Strategic Review, while strengthening the integrated Defence Force across the land, air, space, cyber and maritime domains.
Australia’s Lockean Strategy in the Strategic Nexus of AUKUS
Scholars note that Australia’s strategic orientation demonstrates a Lockean Strategy. This is evinced by its inclination towards minilateralism and alliance formation as opposed to strict multilateralism, along with active engagement in the trilateral partnership of AUKUS, as well as through its particular emphasis on the Australia-US alliance. Within the evolving strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific, Australia now seeks to safeguard and defend the Rules-based International Order and maintain the status quo in the face of opposition by the revisionist axis of China.
AUKUS Replacing ANZUS
It is imperative to highlight that AUKUS represents a valuable platform for Australia in determining its future security alliances since the predicament of ANZUS. In 1984, this agreement came to naught subsequent to the deterioration of the security relationship between New Zealand and the United States. It failed to achieve its core objective of protecting the security of the Pacific and thereby, lost its political heft and regional character.
Conversely, Australia will now be able to harness its paramount role as a NATO-enhanced opportunity partner which will ultimately play a pivotal role in maintaining and strengthening security cooperation in alignment with shared security challenges, while enhancing the strategic importance of cutting-edge technology and capability-sharing partnership provided by AUKUS.
Australian ports will allow American and British SSNs to operate continuously by offering maintenance and servicing. Moreover, the SSNs will be able to operate in the theatre of strategic threats by the strategic depth provided by Australia.
Another crucial factor is that the AUKUS will translate to more significant investment prospects within the shipbuilding industry, which will amplify the direction of the allied capabilities, improve their strategic competitiveness and develop skilled labour, offering employment opportunities for all.
Challenges in the AUKUS Pathway for Australia
As a key player in the Indo-Pacific, Australia’s bid to secure nuclear-powered submarines has been met with outright rejection and immediate outcry about regional escalation which will aggravate the nuclear threshold owing to nuclear proliferation. As paradoxical and ironic it may sound, Beijing has openly criticised and opposed Australia by raising alarming concerns pertaining to possible implications of the partnership and has led partner nations to demonstrate resolute commitment and adherence to the safety protocols and standards for ensuring non-proliferation.
Furthermore, the region of Southeast Asia is growing more sceptical as the veracity of political affirmations that Pillar I in the AUKUS framework contributes towards security remains dubious. More importantly, the declining U.S leverage and commitment in Asia and its widespread implications over Australian sovereignty are under scrutiny. Since America is currently vacillating between maintaining a strong foothold in the region or focusing on other strategic priorities to pursue, Australia is propelled to demonstrate leadership in the region to fill a potential political vacuum by returning to the ‘defence of Australia’ doctrine rather than proceeding with the AUKUS arrangements.
Additionally, the U.S is expected to have considerable political sway over the Australian government’s use of AUKUS submarines, potentially eroding Australia’s manoeuvrability and rendering its sovereignty ‘relative and negotiable’ pertaining to safeguarding American interests in the region of Indo-Pacific.
It is also pertinent to note that Australia is expected to receive SSNs for operational deployment in 2032 (first submarine) and 2040s (AUKUS class submarines), implying that its capabilities will be relatively limited and insufficient to tackle the threats at the geopolitical front which warrants a doubling of Australia’s surface combatant fleet from 11 to 26 vessels in light of the recommendation outlined in the Australian government’s Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet Review. Based on the speculation, it will prove more challenging to maintain the status quo via AUKUS, resultantly.
Another concern is the heavy expenditure involved in the project as the submarines cost up to $368 billion which raises doubts over the certainty of continued funding, with tax payers expected to pay beyond the quarter-trillion-dollar mark in spite of the grave probabilities of cost blowouts, renegotiations and cancellations.
Australia and France hit a rough patch when Canberra decided to embark on the path of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS collaboration which led to cancellation of plans to acquire the French diesel-electric Attack Class submarines. It also deemed the retrofit of 6 Collins Class vessels and the submarine replacement program futile and a national failure as the extended procurement timeframe was considerably infeasible, leaving a gap in its defence capabilities until the period of 2050s. Despite the fact that the two countries have buried the hatchet, the diplomatic rift was serious and each of them downgraded their relationship with one another.
Australia’s trajectory through AUKUS provides substantial implications for the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific. However, Australia’s decision to incorporate the AUKUS has redefined its military posture, regional relationships, alliances, and most importantly, its strategic identity and standing in the global political arena. The AUKUS places Australia as the major player in the era of ‘New Cold War’ between the US and China. This security arrangement compels Australia to maintain a strong and robust military along with efficient and effective diplomatic fronts to normalise its economic relations with neighbouring countries, especially China. This de-hyphenated approach will serve in mitigating regional and global tension along with promotion of stability while ensuring regional cooperation.
The author, Saad Burney, is a student of Strategic studies at the National Defence University, Islamabad, with an impeccable record of debating over international politics.
The Author, Zahra Zaman is an undergraduate student majoring in International Relations at the Department of Social Sciences, SZABIST University, Karachi. With a strong interest in international relations, she aspires to pursue research in areas such as security studies, foreign policy, and diplomacy, employing both comparative and case study approaches to comprehend global politics.
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