Pakistan’s hopes for a stable western border vanished the moment Kabul fell to the Taliban. With the final departure of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, a precarious game of geopolitical chess began, placing Pakistan in a high-stakes position. Pakistan, at first hoped that regime change would bring strategic stability to its western border and curb the influence of rival India. However, the abrupt US withdrawal and fall of Kabul into the hands of the Taliban has made the situation more complicated for Pakistan and concerns about the potential resurgence of terrorist groups and the spillover of instability into Pakistan has increased.
Furthermore, Pakistan and Afghanistan share a 2430km long border named the Durand line. This long and porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is making it even more challenging for Pakistan to contain the influence of terrorist groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has increased its operations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions of Pakistan since the Taliban’s return to power. The resurgence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) coupled with dynamic regional powers influence has backfired Pakistan’s ambitious plans of using Afghanistan as a buffer zone against regional pressure.
While Islamabad’s initial assumption was that a Taliban-led government in Afghanistan would align with its strategic objectives of restricting the presence of terrorist groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and curbing the influence of India in the region the opposite has happened. Inspired by the victory of Taliban in Afghanistan the TTP has increased its attacks in different regions of Pakistan along the border. Increased violence and targeting Pakistan’s security forces intensified the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.According to reports,in 2023 TTP terrorist attacks have increased to 69% , which resulted in the death of 974 people and injuries to over 1351 civilians and military personnel.
This resurgence of terrorist activities forced Pakistan to take strict security measures including public gathering bans in conflict-sensitive areas like Balochistan. The negligence of the Taliban to address the issue has allowed TTP militants to operate freely from Afghan territory, which for over the years has resulted in a sharp rise in terrorist attacks within Pakistan. One of the major factors contributing to the escalation of violence in Pakistan is the safe havens of TTP in Afghanistan where the Taliban government has either failed to deal with these groups or does not want to resolve the issue despite Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts.
In this rapidly evolving scenario regional powers are taking a stage to increase their influence and pursue their strategic interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given its strategic location, Afghanistan has become a chessboard of major power rivalry. Afghanistan has always found itself at the receiving end of the rivalry among its regional neighbors, and has also, in the past, suffered from the competition among the great colonial powers. China for instance believes that stability in Pakistan is crucial for the success of BRI and CPEC. Recently, Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif in his speech emphasized the need to strengthen its relationship with China, stating “Pakistan and China are united in their pursuit of regional stability, which is vital for economic development and security.” Such cooperation is particularly important since both countries face a common danger of extremist organizations growing in the region.
China’s interest in the region is not just economic but also political in nature.China has strong reason to get involved in Afghanistan, it has been struggling with insurgencies in its western province of Xinjiang where Usghar militants are operating. Usghar militants have found their shelters beyond China and re-emerged in Afghanistan,where the terrorist group of Islamic state of Khorasan province (ISKP) has called for jihad against China, vowing to “shed blood like rivers”. So being on bad terms with the Taliban will be risky for China. Moreover, China views India as an enemy and competitor, so China does not want India to gain a stronghold in the region. Increased Indian involvement in Afghanistan is seen as a direct challenge for China, and China will never want its rival to increase its influence in a region where Beijing’s strategic interests lie. For this purpose, China has sought to engage with the Taliban to stabilize the region, which is far more important for China’s strategic interests.
On the other hand, India to counterbalance Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan has increased its engagement with Taliban. After the fall of Kabul seeing an opportunity India has intensified its diplomatic efforts hoping to hold a strong foothold to decrease Pakistan’s influence. One of the key ways India is doing this is through investment in infrastructure projects like the Delaram-Zaranj Highway. In addition to this India has been providing humanitarian aid including food, sanitary products and medical supplies to Afghan people to build trust and cordial relations with the Taliban, which India views as an important step to achieve its strategic interests.
Furthermore, India is also actively engaged with Iran and other central Asian states. India with its active engagement in the Chabahar project aims to form a coalition to counter Pakistan’s role in the region. So, the question arises here is, “does India use construction projects and humanitarian aid efforts as a means to solidify its presence in Afghanistan?” Well, the answer is yes. India has been using different approaches to keep its presence in the region for a longer period.
Reasons for India’s investment in development in Afghanistan are two fold. Firstly, to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and secondly, to keep itself safe from any possible threat from the Taliban. In India’s perspective, whatever happened is the victory of radical extremists which in future will not hesitate to carry out terrorist operations inside India. Thus, keeping a close relationship with the Taliban is of far more importance for India.
Furthermore, India’s investment is not just for goodwill but also to isolate Pakistan. India has been accused of funding terrorist groups in Pakistan, which New Delhi has denied. However, according to reports, India’s involvement has heightened the tensions between Pakistan and India, especially along the Line of Control (LOC). In response, Pakistan has to enhance its defense capabilities and ramp up its military alongside LOC which has further strained Pakistan.
Russia has also been actively trying to regain its power in central Asia after the downfall of Kabul.Afghanistan is of great importance for Russia, due to its historical ties and past experiences there. Therefore, US withdrawal from Afghanistan is a source of great concern and inconvenience for Russia. Russia believes that US withdrawal from Afghanistan is part of its bigger strategy to export the Afghan problem into Russia. For this purpose Russia has increased its activities in the military base of Tajikistan and its forces in Kyrgyzstan. Pakistan sees the Kremlin’s renewed focus on Afghanistan as a way to challenge the dominance of the United States in the region. Sensing the situation and possibilities for future Chief of Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir empathized with the need for regional cooperation to ensure security, stating, “We must engage with all powers to ensure a stable environment in our neighborhood efforts”. This highlights the urgency for Pakistan to make strong relationships with key regional players.
With these shifting dynamics, Pakistan has to review its security paradigm carefully . Traditional reliance on military solutions alone is not enough in addressing these emerging threats from Afghanistan. Instead, Pakistan has to carefully adopt strategies including diplomatic engagement and negotiation, economic development, and counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan has initially tried different ways to put pressure on Afghanistan to cut ties with TTP but nothing has ever worked. Pakistan which controls 40% of Afghanistan’s customs revenue through border trade has leveraged its trade policies to pressure Afghanistan. However, the Taliban have pushed back and accused Pakistan of using economic measures as a tool of coercion hence tensions escalated further. These tensions highlight that the economic pressure alone cannot address the cross border security challenges.
Pakistan is now caught between the increasing security threat of terrorism and shifting regional alliance. Now the question is “Should it double down on military responses, risking further hostility, or rethink its foreign policy to prevent diplomatic isolation? The path ahead demands more decisive decisions, instead of relying on traditional military solutions. Pakistan is now at a crossroads, it has the possibility of either moving towards more peace and understanding or getting further into a regional quagmire. If Pakistan doesn’t rethink its approach, it risks plunging deeper into regional isolation and conflict with no end in sight.
The Author, Rida Muhammad is a dedicated International Relations student at International Islamic University Islamabad, aim to deepen her contribution positively to global affairs.
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