The Taliban’s resurgence – Understanding the evolving threat of Terrorism in Afghanistan

Written by Admin

Introduction;

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 has raised serious concerns and questions regarding the implications of terrorism around South Asia. Their revival has energized the terrorist and extremist groups in Afghanistan with whom they can easily channel their historical, ideological, as well as operational perspectives and linkages. After the US withdrawal from the country (Afghanistan), transnational organizations like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State have revived once again. There exists a strong relationship between these Taliban’s and Al Qaeda, as they were providing this terrorist organization a safe haven to launch terrorist attacks on an international level. The Taliban’s return to power has not just shifted the geopolitical and security landscape of Afghanistan but also of its neighboring countries as well. Under their rule, there was a complete downfall of the country’s economy, women’s rights were totally neglected, and malnutrition seemed to be rampant over there. However, due to the interstate conflicts and dynamics, the current threat picture of this particular region might seem to be diverse and complex.

Background:

The Taliban is a pro-Pashtun or simply a Sunni Islamist movement that was founded in the early 1990s after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. In Pashto, the word ‘Taliban’ means students, which might include men and peasant farmers who were studying Islam in Afghan and Pakistani schools and madrassas under the supervision of Mullah Muhammad Omer, who was the head of this movement. From 1994 to 1996, the major cities like Herat and Jalalabad were in control of these Taliban’s. However, in 1996, the Taliban captured the country’s capital, ‘Kabul,’ and established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan along with the enforcement of strict Sharia laws. Under their harsh rule, strict restrictions were being imposed on the women and Hazara community. Pakistan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were the only countries at that time who had recognized their regime. After the September 11 attack in the US, the Taliban’s have provided a safe place to Al Qaeda so that they can easily launch terrorist attacks to other countries. Their support for Al Qaeda drastically led to the US invasion of Afghanistan. With the support of NATO forces, a new democratic government was formed, and the Taliban regime was badly overthrown. In spite of this, the Taliban’s have decided to be regrouped in order to launch effective attacks and insurgencies against the newly formed democratic government and to exert their influence in rural areas.

The Taliban’s gradually regained their lost honor and glory in the next two decades by exerting their control over the Afghan government, thereby exploiting the corruption, nepotism, and withdrawal of international bodies. In 2020, a peace agreement was signed by the US and Taliban in which it was decided that the US would withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. In August 2021, the US did so, and the Afghan government collapsed and the Taliban’s reestablished their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan once again.

Figure 1: Map of Afghanistan Taliban

Terrorism in Afghanistan:

It has been observed that throughout human history, states and nations have experienced security threat challenges. Social and political unrest as well as technological advancements contribute directly to the increased security threats. One of the major threats to human security for now is terrorism. The sole purpose of terrorism is to create fear among the general public and to make them believe that their current government is powerless. This is exactly what has happened in Afghanistan in the last few years. The Taliban came into power in 1990 and have captured 90% of Afghanistan’s territory, hence making Afghanistan the prime security threat to central Asia. For instance, the major terrorist groups that are operating and are still functional in Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan might include: Al Qaeda, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan TTP, Lashkar-e-taiba (LET), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JEM), Haqqani network, and Islamic state Khorasan province IS-K. The evolving threat of terrorism in Afghanistan by the activities of these terrorist organizations is highly complex because of the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the country’s economic downfall. All in all, there are massive regional and global implications of these threats.

Al-Qaeda :

A terrorist organization hosted by the Taliban has had serious security threat implications, and the mastermind behind this was Osama bin Laden, who was however killed by the US in 2011. Al Qaeda has a symbiotic linkage with the Taliban, as they are providing them bases to launch attacks on the neighboring countries from the soil of their own country. It was being estimated that about their 100 fighters are still functional in Afghanistan, whose major agenda was to plan international terrorist operations and attacks.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan TTP:

It is one of the renowned and largest terrorist organizations that was being given operational and logistic support from the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda as well. They are perceived as Pakistani Taliban, and their estimated strength is 6000 to 6500. They are actually active in cross-border terrorism and are using Afghan bases for operations, thus impacting global and regional security.

Islamic state-Khorasan Province:

This is the most brutal and active group in a region. It was formed in 2005 and had close affiliation with that of ISIS. It consists of the Taliban, extremists, and other militants. Assaults, shootings, and suicide bombings are the most indiscriminate tactics that are being adopted by them. In August 2021, they launched the deadliest attack at Kabul airport, thereby killing 170 Afghans and 23 US civilians. The rivalry between IS-K and Taliban has further complicated the peace and security situation in a region.

Jaish-e-Muhammad (JEM):

Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba are the two militant groups who might have established their training camps somewhere in Afghanistan. They have close historical ties with the intelligence services of their neighboring countries. As both of them are involved in terrorist activities, they have added another layer of distress and complexity to the security situation. They fully support the Taliban’s and have further escalated the extremism, radicalization, and terrorism in a region.

Haqqani Network:

It is an Islamist militant organization that is well known for its deadliest attacks, assassinations, and suicide bombings. It has close ties with that of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. They have contributed a lot to ongoing violence and conflict in Afghanistan. In 2008, they attacked the Indian Embassy in Kabul, and in 2011, they launched another attack on the US Embassy, resulting in civilian casualties.

The Afghan Taliban’s are responsible for the high profile attacks in Afghanistan. Below, Figure 2 indicates that from 2007 to 2021, these attacks were increased by 78%, resulting in the remarkable number of civilian deaths along with the huge damage to infrastructure.

Figure 2. Terrorist attacks in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2021

The current violence and massive attacks by these terrorists hamper economic development and foreign aid, thus leading to poverty and unemployment. Furthermore, it aggravates the humanitarian crisis in the sense that most of the Afghans are suffering malnutrition, displacement, food insecurity, and access to the basic necessities of life.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan represents a wide range of threats that might have serious and long-term implications for global security. It is necessary to understand their revival, factors behind their resurgence, and impacts of terrorism in a region and counter-terrorism strategies to mitigate the issue. Although it seems to be challenging for the international bodies to address this violence on every forum, diplomatic efforts and regional cooperation, which might involve the eradication of extremism, would be helpful in mitigating the possible threat of terrorism and analyzing the uncertain future of Afghanistan.